The world’s medical experts are sounding the alarm about an emerging threat, dubbed Disease X, that could be 20 times deadlier than COVID-19 and cause enormous global economic costs.disease x pandemic This is not hyperbole. A global pandemic is possible and medical science cannot always keep pace with the mutating, evolving microbes that can turn out to be dangerous new or as-yet unknown pathogens.
The past century is littered with examples, from the 1918 “Spanish flu” that was actually caused by a bacterium and not a virus to the outbreaks of SARS-CoV-1, MERS and Zika in the 21st century, as well as many other less severe but nonetheless worrying re-emerging infectious diseases.disease x pandemic Medical confidence is rocked over and over again by these surprise outbreaks that threaten lives.
A future Disease X may be a pathogen that spills over from animals into humans.disease x pandemic Alternatively, it could be a human-only pathogen that develops novel characteristics such as high transmissibility or virulence. The emergence of a new virus is not only possible, but almost inevitable, given the ongoing process of natural selection of microbes to evolve for survival in changing environments, where some will adapt to these changes while others are doomed to die out.
Whatever the cause of a future Disease X, there is no question that it will create an international health emergency requiring rapid public health response.disease x pandemic The faster vaccines, antivirals, monoclonal antibodies and diagnostic tests are developed, the quicker lives can be saved.
This is why CEPI has put Disease X at the forefront of its global R&D efforts, and why the new Vaccines for Europe and Beyond programme includes as its first focus area the development of prototypes to tackle the most likely future pathogens that have the potential to generate a global outbreak with epidemic or pandemic consequences.disease x pandemic
A successful Disease X vaccine requires an integrated approach, including accelerated detection and diagnosis using genomic, antigenic, epidemiological and laboratory surveillance; rapid response and containment with effective interventions, including public education, community engagement and improved medical preparedness; and research into platform technologies, such as the ability to make vaccines in weeks rather than months. These are the areas we are focusing on through our work with BioNTech and Moderna, as well as with other partners across the globe. The aim is to get these prototypes into the clinic as quickly as possible, in order to minimise the time and space that will be needed to develop a vaccine against the next Disease X. This will not only save millions of lives, but it will also demonstrate that it is possible to speed up the development of medical countermeasures. In the long term, our ambition is to advance these prototypes and other critical research into the 22 families of priority pathogens, bringing us closer to being able to tackle the next disease X within 100 days of it arising.